RECAP SEMANAL — 17-23 AGOSTO 2026WEEKLY RECAP — AUG 17-23, 2026
36 picks, 17W-18L-1V, -1.93u. Semana perdedora con el mejor CLV de nuestra historia: +4.55% y 72% batiendo el cierre.
36 picks, 17W-18L-1V, -1.93u. A losing week with the best CLV in our history: +4.55% and 72% beating the close.
24 AGOSTO 2026AUGUST 24, 2026
RECAP SEMANALWEEKLY RECAP
5 min de lectura5 min read
No todas las semanas salen bien, y esta no salió. 36 picks liquidados, 17 victorias, 18 derrotas y 1 void, para un balance de -1.93u y un ROI del -5.51%. Es nuestra peor semana desde abril. Y sin embargo, es también la semana en la que mejor hemos seleccionado en toda la historia del proyecto: CLV medio +4.55%, con un 72.2% de los picks batiendo el precio de cierre. Merece la pena explicar por qué esas dos frases no se contradicen.
Resumen Semanal
+4.55%
CLV Medio (récord)
72.2%
Picks que batieron el cierre
Liga MX · MLS
7 PICKS — 4W-3L
Necaxa vs León (Liga MX) — Over 2.5 @ 1.72
✅ WON
+0.72u
Pachuca vs Puebla (Liga MX) — Over 2.5 @ 1.69
✅ WON
+0.69u
DC United vs New England (MLS) — Over 2.5 @ 2.02
✅ WON
+1.02u
Philadelphia vs Inter Miami (MLS) — Over 3.5 @ 2.00
✅ WON
+1.00u
Cincinnati vs NYCFC (MLS) — Over 3.5 @ 2.10
❌ LOST
-1.00u
DC United vs New England (MLS) — BTTS Yes @ 1.67
❌ LOST
-1.00u
Orlando City vs Chicago Fire (MLS) — Over 3.5 @ 1.98
❌ LOST
-1.00u
Subtotal: +0.43u
MLS · J1 League · Ligue 2
7 PICKS — 4W-3L
FC Tokyo vs JEF United (J1) — BTTS No @ 1.80 ⭐
✅ WON
+1.20u
Clermont vs Dijon (Ligue 2) — Under 2.5 @ 1.99
✅ WON
+0.99u
Kashiwa Reysol vs V-Varen Nagasaki (J1) — BTTS Yes @ 1.81
✅ WON
+0.81u
Minnesota vs Atlanta United (MLS) — Over 2.5 @ 1.88
✅ WON
+0.88u
Sporting KC vs St. Louis City (MLS) — Over 2.5 @ 1.81
❌ LOST
-1.00u
Colorado vs LAFC (MLS) — Over 2.5 @ 1.93
❌ LOST
-1.00u
Vancouver vs Houston (MLS) — Over 2.5 @ 1.89
❌ LOST
-1.00u
Subtotal: +0.88u
J1 League · La Liga · Escocia · Nórdicas · Brasil
22 PICKS — 9W-12L-1V
Kashima Antlers vs Avispa Fukuoka (J1) — BTTS Yes @ 2.22 ⭐
✅ WON
+1.22u
Athletic Bilbao vs Sevilla (La Liga) — Over 2.5 @ 2.20
✅ WON
+1.20u
Hammarby vs GAIS (Allsvenskan) — BTTS No @ 2.08
✅ WON
+1.08u
Kyoto Sanga vs Mito Hollyhock (J1) — BTTS Yes @ 1.95
✅ WON
+0.95u
CD Eldense vs Cádiz (La Liga 2) — BTTS Yes @ 1.90
✅ WON
+0.90u
Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal (La Liga) — BTTS Yes @ 1.80
✅ WON
+0.80u
Santos vs Mirassol (Brasileirão) — BTTS Yes @ 1.76
✅ WON
+0.76u
Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo Verdy (J1) — Doble Oportunidad X2 @ 1.70
✅ WON
+0.70u
IFK Göteborg vs Elfsborg (Allsvenskan) — BTTS Yes @ 1.65
✅ WON
+0.65u
Kups vs Mariehamn (Veikkausliiga) — BTTS No @ 1.95
❌ LOST
-1.50u
Valencia vs Celta Vigo (La Liga) — Over 2.5 @ 2.23 + BTTS Yes @ 2.00
❌ LOST x2
-2.00u
Dundee Utd vs Dundee FC (Escocia) — Over 2.5 @ 1.89 + BTTS Yes @ 1.73
❌ LOST x2
-1.50u
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kawasaki (J1) — BTTS No @ 2.20
❌ LOST
-1.00u
Nagoya Grampus vs Gamba Osaka (J1) — Doble Oportunidad X2 @ 1.62
❌ LOST
-1.00u
Horsens vs Lyngby (Superliga) — Under 2.5 @ 1.92
❌ LOST
-1.00u
Elche vs Barcelona (La Liga) — BTTS Yes @ 1.80
❌ LOST
-1.00u
Chapecoense vs São Paulo (Brasileirão) — BTTS Yes @ 1.91
❌ LOST
-1.00u
AD Ceuta vs Las Palmas (La Liga 2) — BTTS Yes @ 1.85
❌ LOST
-1.00u
Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-Pulse (J1) — BTTS Yes @ 1.67
❌ LOST
-0.50u
Rangers vs St Mirren (Escocia) — Over 2.5 @ 1.62
⚪ VOID
0.00u
Subtotal: -3.24u
Mejor Pick de la Semana
Kashima Antlers vs Avispa Fukuoka — BTTS Sí @ 2.22 (+1.22u). No es solo el pick que más dejó, es el que mejor ilustra qué buscamos. Nuestro modelo daba una probabilidad real del 54% frente al 45% implícito del mercado: un edge del 9%. Pero el dato que más nos importa vino después del partido: el precio cerró un 8.29% por debajo del que nosotros cogimos. Es decir, el mercado se movió hacia nuestra posición antes del pitido inicial.
¿Qué es el CLV y por qué le damos tanta importancia? El Closing Line Value mide la diferencia entre la cuota a la que apostamos y la cuota a la que el mercado cerró. Si apostamos a 2.22 y el partido arranca a 2.05, hemos comprado más barato que el consenso final — y ese consenso final es, con diferencia, el mejor predictor público que existe. El resultado de un partido concreto es ruido; batir el cierre de forma sostenida no lo es.
Peor Pick y Qué Aprendemos
Kups vs Mariehamn — BTTS No @ 1.95 con stake 1.5u (-1.50u). El mayor stake de la semana en el mayor fallo de la semana. El modelo veía un 61% de probabilidad de que no marcaran ambos, con un edge del 9.7%, en una Veikkausliiga que históricamente nos ha tratado bien. Marcaron los dos.
La lección no es «no apostar Veikkausliiga». Es más incómoda que eso: el stake de 1.5u multiplica tanto el acierto como el error, y esta semana el modelo cargó la mano justo donde falló. De los cuatro picks de la semana con stake superior a 1u, dos ganaron y dos perdieron — pero los que perdieron pesaron más. Es exactamente el comportamiento esperado de un sistema con edge real atravesando una racha mala: no se rompe, duele más.
Semana a Semana: el Contraste
La comparación con la semana anterior es brutal en resultado y tranquilizadora en proceso:
- 10-16 ago: 22 picks · 13W-8L-1V · +1.82u · ROI +8.69% · CLV +2.34%
- 17-23 ago: 36 picks · 17W-18L-1V · -1.93u · ROI -5.51% · CLV +4.55%
El ROI cayó 14 puntos. El CLV subió casi el doble. Si el modelo se estuviera degradando, esperaríamos ver justo lo contrario: precios que se alejan de nosotros, cierres que nos dan la razón cada vez menos. Lo que vemos es un 72.2% de picks batiendo el cierre, nuestro mejor registro. Dos de los mejores CLV del año llegaron esta misma semana — Minnesota Over 2.5 (+18.99%) y Clermont Under 2.5 (+17.06%), ambos ganados.
Por ligas, J1 League fue el refugio (+2.38u, ROI +29.75% en 8 picks) mientras que MLS se llevó el golpe (-3.10u, ROI -34.44% en 9 picks) — nueve picks, siete de ellos de Over, en una semana de partidos más cerrados de lo que proyectaban los xG. Por mercados, BTTS terminó prácticamente plano (-0.72% en 18 picks) y el daño real vino de Over 3.5, con solo 3 picks y -33.33%.
En el acumulado histórico seguimos en 746 picks, 55.0% de acierto y +5.25% de ROI. Una semana de -1.93u mueve esa cifra unas décimas. Ese es el punto.
Qué Vigilamos Esta Semana
Tres cosas concretas. MLS bajo lupa: nueve picks y -3.10u obligan a revisar si el modelo está sobreestimando goles en una liga que ha bajado el ritmo en agosto; no tocamos nada todavía, pero el filtro de edge sube. J1 League sigue siendo nuestro mejor terreno y las jornadas entre semana dan volumen. Y La Liga entra en su tercera jornada, donde los patrones de la temporada empiezan a ser fiables y los BTTS dejan de ser una lotería de pretemporada.
Y la regla de siempre, que esta semana toca repetir en voz alta: no cambiamos el sistema por una semana mala. Lo cambiaríamos si el CLV se hundiera. Ha hecho lo contrario.
¿Quieres los picks en tiempo real?
Cada pick se publica con edge calculado, probabilidad real vs implícita y stake recomendado. 100% transparente. 100% gratis.
Volver al Blog
Not every week goes well, and this one did not. 36 settled picks, 17 wins, 18 losses and 1 void, for -1.93u and a -5.51% ROI. It is our worst week since April. And yet it is also the week in which we selected better than at any point in the project's history: average CLV +4.55%, with 72.2% of picks beating the closing price. It is worth explaining why those two sentences do not contradict each other.
Weekly Summary
+4.55%
Average CLV (record)
72.2%
Picks Beating the Close
Liga MX · MLS
7 PICKS — 4W-3L
Necaxa vs León (Liga MX) — Over 2.5 @ 1.72
✅ WON
+0.72u
Pachuca vs Puebla (Liga MX) — Over 2.5 @ 1.69
✅ WON
+0.69u
DC United vs New England (MLS) — Over 2.5 @ 2.02
✅ WON
+1.02u
Philadelphia vs Inter Miami (MLS) — Over 3.5 @ 2.00
✅ WON
+1.00u
Cincinnati vs NYCFC (MLS) — Over 3.5 @ 2.10
❌ LOST
-1.00u
DC United vs New England (MLS) — BTTS Yes @ 1.67
❌ LOST
-1.00u
Orlando City vs Chicago Fire (MLS) — Over 3.5 @ 1.98
❌ LOST
-1.00u
Subtotal: +0.43u
MLS · J1 League · Ligue 2
7 PICKS — 4W-3L
FC Tokyo vs JEF United (J1) — BTTS No @ 1.80 ⭐
✅ WON
+1.20u
Clermont vs Dijon (Ligue 2) — Under 2.5 @ 1.99
✅ WON
+0.99u
Kashiwa Reysol vs V-Varen Nagasaki (J1) — BTTS Yes @ 1.81
✅ WON
+0.81u
Minnesota vs Atlanta United (MLS) — Over 2.5 @ 1.88
✅ WON
+0.88u
Sporting KC vs St. Louis City (MLS) — Over 2.5 @ 1.81
❌ LOST
-1.00u
Colorado vs LAFC (MLS) — Over 2.5 @ 1.93
❌ LOST
-1.00u
Vancouver vs Houston (MLS) — Over 2.5 @ 1.89
❌ LOST
-1.00u
Subtotal: +0.88u
J1 League · La Liga · Scotland · Nordics · Brazil
22 PICKS — 9W-12L-1V
Kashima Antlers vs Avispa Fukuoka (J1) — BTTS Yes @ 2.22 ⭐
✅ WON
+1.22u
Athletic Bilbao vs Sevilla (La Liga) — Over 2.5 @ 2.20
✅ WON
+1.20u
Hammarby vs GAIS (Allsvenskan) — BTTS No @ 2.08
✅ WON
+1.08u
Kyoto Sanga vs Mito Hollyhock (J1) — BTTS Yes @ 1.95
✅ WON
+0.95u
CD Eldense vs Cádiz (La Liga 2) — BTTS Yes @ 1.90
✅ WON
+0.90u
Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal (La Liga) — BTTS Yes @ 1.80
✅ WON
+0.80u
Santos vs Mirassol (Brasileirão) — BTTS Yes @ 1.76
✅ WON
+0.76u
Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo Verdy (J1) — Double Chance X2 @ 1.70
✅ WON
+0.70u
IFK Göteborg vs Elfsborg (Allsvenskan) — BTTS Yes @ 1.65
✅ WON
+0.65u
Kups vs Mariehamn (Veikkausliiga) — BTTS No @ 1.95
❌ LOST
-1.50u
Valencia vs Celta Vigo (La Liga) — Over 2.5 @ 2.23 + BTTS Yes @ 2.00
❌ LOST x2
-2.00u
Dundee Utd vs Dundee FC (Scotland) — Over 2.5 @ 1.89 + BTTS Yes @ 1.73
❌ LOST x2
-1.50u
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kawasaki (J1) — BTTS No @ 2.20
❌ LOST
-1.00u
Nagoya Grampus vs Gamba Osaka (J1) — Double Chance X2 @ 1.62
❌ LOST
-1.00u
Horsens vs Lyngby (Superliga) — Under 2.5 @ 1.92
❌ LOST
-1.00u
Elche vs Barcelona (La Liga) — BTTS Yes @ 1.80
❌ LOST
-1.00u
Chapecoense vs São Paulo (Brasileirão) — BTTS Yes @ 1.91
❌ LOST
-1.00u
AD Ceuta vs Las Palmas (La Liga 2) — BTTS Yes @ 1.85
❌ LOST
-1.00u
Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-Pulse (J1) — BTTS Yes @ 1.67
❌ LOST
-0.50u
Rangers vs St Mirren (Scotland) — Over 2.5 @ 1.62
⚪ VOID
0.00u
Subtotal: -3.24u
Best Pick of the Week
Kashima Antlers vs Avispa Fukuoka — BTTS Yes @ 2.22 (+1.22u). Not just the biggest winner, but the clearest illustration of what we are looking for. Our model gave it a 54% true probability against the market's 45% implied — a 9% edge. The number that matters more came after the whistle: the price closed 8.29% below the one we took. The market moved toward our position before kick-off.
What is CLV and why do we weight it so heavily? Closing Line Value measures the gap between the odds we bet and the odds the market closed at. If we bet 2.22 and the game starts at 2.05, we bought cheaper than the final consensus — and that final consensus is comfortably the best public predictor that exists. The outcome of any single match is noise; beating the close consistently is not.
Worst Pick and the Lesson
Kups vs Mariehamn — BTTS No @ 1.95 at 1.5u stake (-1.50u). The largest stake of the week on the largest miss of the week. The model saw a 61% chance that both teams would not score, with a 9.7% edge, in a Veikkausliiga that has historically treated us well. Both scored.
The lesson is not "stop betting the Veikkausliiga". It is less comfortable than that: a 1.5u stake magnifies the hit and the miss equally, and this week the model leaned in precisely where it was wrong. Of the four picks staked above 1u, two won and two lost — but the losers weighed more. That is exactly how a system with a real edge behaves during a bad run: it does not break, it hurts more.
Week Over Week: the Contrast
The comparison with last week is brutal on results and reassuring on process:
- Aug 10-16: 22 picks · 13W-8L-1V · +1.82u · ROI +8.69% · CLV +2.34%
- Aug 17-23: 36 picks · 17W-18L-1V · -1.93u · ROI -5.51% · CLV +4.55%
ROI fell 14 points. CLV nearly doubled. If the model were decaying we would expect the opposite: prices drifting away from us, closes vindicating us less and less. What we see instead is 72.2% of picks beating the close, our best reading on record. Two of the year's strongest CLV numbers landed this very week — Minnesota Over 2.5 (+18.99%) and Clermont Under 2.5 (+17.06%), both winners.
By league, J1 League was the refuge (+2.38u, +29.75% ROI on 8 picks) while MLS took the damage (-3.10u, -34.44% ROI on 9 picks) — nine picks, seven of them Overs, in a week of tighter games than the xG projected. By market, BTTS finished essentially flat (-0.72% on 18 picks) and the real harm came from Over 3.5, just 3 picks at -33.33%.
All-time we stand at 746 picks, a 55.0% strike rate and +5.25% ROI. A -1.93u week moves that figure by tenths of a point. That is the point.
What We're Watching This Week
Three specifics. MLS under the microscope: nine picks and -3.10u forces a check on whether the model is overestimating goals in a league that has slowed down in August; nothing changes yet, but the edge filter goes up. J1 League remains our strongest ground and the midweek rounds bring volume. And La Liga reaches matchday three, where season patterns start becoming reliable and BTTS stops being a pre-season lottery.
And the standing rule, which this week is worth saying out loud: we do not change the system over one bad week. We would change it if CLV collapsed. It did the opposite.
Want This Week's Picks in Real Time?
Every pick published with calculated edge, true vs implied probability, and recommended stake. 100% transparent. 100% free.
Back to Blog