Recap Semanal — 4-10 Mayo 2026
Weekly Recap — May 4-10, 2026
33 picks · 19W-14L · +1.19u · ROI +3.5% · Scottish Premiership la liga de la semana · Old Firm Over 2.5 cumplió · Veikkausliiga el punto negro
33 picks · 19W-14L · +1.19u · ROI +3.5% · Scottish Premiership leads the week · Old Firm Over 2.5 delivered · Veikkausliiga the weak spot
11 MAYO 2026MAY 11, 2026
RECAP SEMANALWEEKLY RECAP
Scottish Prem · Allsvenskan · J1 · MLS · Ligue 2 · Ireland
Semana productiva en volumen con resultado positivo, aunque más ajustado que la anterior. Del 4 al 10 de mayo, los modelos AIBG generaron 33 picks con 19 victorias, 14 derrotas y +1.19 unidades de beneficio — un ROI semanal de +3.5%. La Scottish Premiership fue la liga de la semana: 4W-1L y +2.26u, con el Old Firm Celtic-Rangers cerrando en verde. El viernes 9 fue el mejor día: 7W-2L con +3.38u. El punto oscuro: Veikkausliiga, que se fue 0W-3L (-3.00u) y lastró el resultado global. Aquí el desglose completo.
Resumen de la Semana
19-14
Victorias — Derrotas
+1.50u
Mejor Pick (Halmstad O2.5)
-1.50u
Peor Pick (Colorado O2.5)
Semana con más volumen que la anterior (33 vs 28 picks) y quinta semana consecutiva en positivo. La Scottish Premiership fue la gran sorpresa: 4W-1L y +2.26u liderada por el derby Celtic vs Rangers (Over 2.5) y el doble de Falkirk vs Hibernian. El viernes concentró el grueso de las ganancias con un 7W-2L que salvó la semana. El Over/Under 2.5 se mantuvo equilibrado (9W-8L, +0.74u) y el Double Chance sumó con discreción (4W-2L, +0.75u). El lastre llegó de Finlandia: la Veikkausliiga registró 0 victorias en 3 intentos (-3.00u).
Estado global (549 picks): 299W-247L-3V | Profit acumulado +38.82u | ROI total +6.36% | Racha actual +1
Allsvenskan · La Liga · Premier League
2W-2L
Halmstads BK vs IF Brommapojkarna — BTTS Yes @ 1.75
WON
+0.75u
Halmstads BK vs IF Brommapojkarna — Over 2.5 @ 2.00
WON
+1.50u
Sevilla vs Real Sociedad — Over 2.5 @ 1.90
LOST
-1.00u
Everton vs Manchester City — Under 2.5 @ 2.42
LOST
-1.00u
Balance del día: +0.25u
Veikkausliiga (Finlandia)
0W-2L
IF Gnistan vs FC Inter Turku — Over 2.5 @ 1.77
LOST
-1.00u
IF Gnistan vs FC Inter Turku — BTTS Yes @ 1.75
LOST
-1.00u
Balance del día: -2.00u
J1 League (Japón)
2W-1L
Avispa Fukuoka vs Kyoto Sanga — DC 1X @ 1.57
WON
+0.57u
Kashima Antlers vs Mito Hollyhock — Under 2.5 @ 1.80
LOST
-0.50u
Kashiwa Reysol vs Urawa Red Diamonds — DC X2 @ 1.74
WON
+0.74u
Balance del día: +0.81u
2. Bundesliga · Premier Division (IRL) · Allsvenskan · Veikkausliiga
4W-4L
Ilves vs AC Oulu — Over 2.5 @ 1.65
LOST
-1.00u
SC Paderborn 07 vs Karlsruher SC — BTTS Yes @ 1.60
WON
+0.60u
IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna — Over 2.5 @ 1.95
LOST
-1.00u
IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna — BTTS Yes @ 1.75
LOST
-1.00u
Drogheda United vs Derry City — DC 1X @ 1.61
WON
+0.61u
Drogheda United vs Derry City — BTTS Yes @ 1.91
LOST
-1.00u
Dundalk vs Bohemian FC — BTTS Yes @ 1.75
WON
+0.38u
Dundalk vs Bohemian FC — Over 2.5 @ 1.98
WON
+0.98u
Balance del día: -1.43u
Scottish Prem · Ligue 2 · La Liga 2 · Premier Div. (IRL) · MLS · Super League (GRE)
7W-2L
AD Ceuta vs CD Castellón — BTTS Yes @ 1.65
WON
+0.65u
Panserraikos FC vs AE Kifisia — DC 1X @ 1.61
LOST
-1.00u
Aberdeen FC vs Dundee Utd — DC X2 @ 1.67
LOST
-1.00u
St Mirren FC vs Kilmarnock FC — DC X2 @ 1.83
WON
+0.83u
Falkirk FC vs Hibernian FC — Over 2.5 @ 1.89
WON
+0.89u
Falkirk FC vs Hibernian FC — BTTS Yes @ 1.70
WON
+0.70u
SC Bastia vs Le Mans FC — Under 2.5 @ 1.75
WON
+0.75u
Clermont Foot vs EA Guingamp — Under 2.5 @ 2.13
WON
+0.56u
New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union — Over 2.5 @ 2.00
WON
+1.00u
Balance del día: +3.38u
Scottish Prem · Allsvenskan · Primeira Liga · MLS · Liga MX
4W-3L
Celtic vs Rangers — Over 2.5 @ 1.56
WON
+0.84u
Kalmar FF vs Halmstads BK — Over 2.5 @ 2.10
LOST
-1.00u
BK Häcken vs Malmö FF — Over 2.5 @ 1.74
WON
+1.11u
FC Alverca vs Estoril Praia — BTTS Yes @ 1.62
WON
+0.62u
New York City FC vs Columbus Crew — Over 2.5 @ 1.74
WON
+1.11u
Colorado Rapids vs St. Louis City SC — Over 2.5 @ 1.58
LOST
-1.50u
CF Pachuca vs Toluca — BTTS Yes @ 1.60
LOST
-1.00u
Balance del día: +0.18u
Mejor Pick de la Semana
Halmstads BK vs IF Brommapojkarna — Over 2.5
Allsvenskan · Domingo 4 Mayo
Mercado: Over 2.5 @ 2.00 · Stake 1.5u
WON
+1.50u
Por qué funcionó
Allsvenskan arrancó la jornada con fuerza. El modelo detectó un Halmstad en casa con necesidad de puntos y un Brommapojkarna con tendencia a conceder y atacar. La cuota de 2.00 para Over 2.5 era generosa — la probabilidad real era claramente superior al 50% implícito. El mismo partido también ganó en BTTS (+0.75u). Lección: cuando el modelo da cuota 2.00 a algo con probabilidad ~60%, el edge (implied = 50% vs real = 60%) es sustancial. Esas cuotas redondas suelen estar mal calibradas por los libros.
Peor Pick — La Lección
Colorado Rapids vs St. Louis City SC — Over 2.5
MLS · Sábado 10 Mayo
Mercado: Over 2.5 @ 1.58 · Stake 1.5u
LOST
-1.50u
Lección aprendida
El mayor coste de la semana fue un Over 2.5 en MLS a cuota 1.58 con stake 1.5u. El problema: cuota 1.58 implica un 63.3% de probabilidad — para justificar el edge se necesita que el modelo estime >68-70%. En partidos de MLS con alta varianza táctica, ese margen se cierra rápido. Combinado con el stake más alto de la semana, el riesgo/recompensa no era óptimo. Lección: cuando la cuota es baja (por debajo de 1.65), el edge en puntos porcentuales tiene que ser más grande para justificar un stake 1.5u.
Comparativa Semana Anterior
| Métrica | Sem. Anterior (28 Abr-3 May) | Esta Semana (4-10 May) | Delta |
|---|
| Picks | 28 | 33 | +5 |
| W-L | 17W-11L | 19W-14L | — |
| Win Rate | 60.7% | 57.6% | -3.1pp |
| Profit | +3.69u | +1.19u | -2.50u |
| ROI | +12.5% | +3.5% | -9.0pp |
| Mejor Mercado | BTTS (+4.02u) | Over/Under 2.5 (+0.74u) | — |
| Mejor Liga | Super League GRE (97% ROI) | Scottish Prem (+2.26u) | — |
| Peor Liga | Over/Under 2.5 (-2.67u) | Veikkausliiga (0W-3L, -3.00u) | — |
Perspectiva: El ROI bajó de +12.5% a +3.5%, pero sumamos la quinta semana positiva consecutiva. Con 549 picks en el sistema, el acumulado llega a +38.82u y 6.36% ROI. La Veikkausliiga drena rentabilidad de forma sistemática — el scanner está elevando los umbrales para esa liga.
¿Qué Vigilamos la Próxima Semana?
Con las ligas europeas entrando en sus últimas jornadas y el calendario americano en plena expansión, hay tres ejes estratégicos para la semana del 11 al 17 de mayo:
1. Scottish Premiership — Capitalizar el momento. Cuatro victorias en cinco intentos esta semana, con el Old Firm y Falkirk-Hibs sumando puntos. La liga escocesa entra en fase de play-off y descenso — zona de alta motivación donde el modelo históricamente funciona bien. La próxima jornada tiene partidos de alto voltaje emocional.
2. Veikkausliiga — Elevar umbrales o pausar. Tres derrotas consecutivas en Liga Finlandesa con 0% de acierto no es varianza pura: indica que los modelos necesitan más datos de esa liga para calibrarse. La semana que viene, Over 2.5 en Veikkausliiga solo se activará con edge superior al 10% — límite estricto hasta recuperar calibración.
3. MLS y Allsvenskan — Mantener la precisión en cuotas bajas. Las dos ligas americanas y la sueca generaron picks en cuotas 1.56-1.74, que exigen alta tasa de acierto. El sistema va ajustando stakes: cuotas por debajo de 1.65 con stake inferior a 1u salvo edge muy claro.
Próximos partidos en el radar: Última jornada de La Liga (Barça y Madrid con motivaciones opuestas), jornadas de May en MLS (rivalidades de conferencia), Scottish Prem (play-offs), J1 League y Allsvenskan en su ecuador de temporada.
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Another positive week, the fifth in a row, with more volume than the previous one. From May 4 to 10, the AIBG models generated 33 picks with 19 wins, 14 losses and +1.19 units of profit — a weekly ROI of +3.5%. The Scottish Premiership was the league of the week: 4W-1L and +2.26u, headlined by the Old Firm Celtic vs Rangers Over 2.5 and a strong Falkirk-Hibs double. Friday May 9 was the standout day at 7W-2L and +3.38u. The weak spot: Veikkausliiga went 0W-3L (-3.00u) and dragged down the weekly total. Here's the full breakdown.
Weekly Summary
+1.50u
Best Pick (Halmstad O2.5)
-1.50u
Worst Pick (Colorado O2.5)
Higher volume than last week (33 vs 28 picks) and a fifth consecutive profitable week. Scottish Premiership was the surprise package: 4W-1L and +2.26u, with the Old Firm delivering Over 2.5 and Falkirk-Hibs going both ways (Over and BTTS). Friday was where most of the profit was made — 7W-2L and +3.38u. Over/Under 2.5 stayed near-breakeven with 9W-8L at +0.74u. Double Chance was clean at 4W-2L (+0.75u). The drag came from Finland: Veikkausliiga contributed zero wins across three attempts (-3.00u).
Global record (549 picks): 299W-247L-3P | Cumulative profit +38.82u | Total ROI +6.36% | Current streak +1
Results by Day
| Day | Picks | W-L | Profit | Highlight |
|---|
| Sun May 4 | 4 | 2W-2L | +0.25u | Halmstad O2.5 ✅ (best pick) · Sevilla O2.5 ❌ |
| Tue May 5 | 2 | 0W-2L | -2.00u | Veikkausliiga double miss (O2.5 + BTTS) ❌ |
| Wed May 6 | 3 | 2W-1L | +0.81u | J1 League DC double ✅ · Kashima U2.5 ❌ |
| Thu May 8 | 8 | 4W-4L | -1.43u | Paderborn BTTS ✅ · Dundalk double ✅ · Elfsborg miss ❌ |
| Fri May 9 | 9 | 7W-2L | +3.38u | Falkirk-Hibs double ✅ · Ligue 2 Under ✅ · NE Rev O2.5 ✅ |
| Sat May 10 | 7 | 4W-3L | +0.18u | Celtic-Rangers O2.5 ✅ · NYCFC O2.5 ✅ · Colorado ❌ (worst) |
Best Pick of the Week
Halmstads BK vs IF Brommapojkarna — Over 2.5
Allsvenskan · Sun May 4
Market: Over 2.5 @ 2.00 · Stake 1.5u
WON
+1.50u
Why it worked
Allsvenskan started the week on a high note. The model flagged Halmstad at home needing points against a Brommapojkarna side with a tendency to play open football. The 2.00 odds for Over 2.5 were generous — the model estimated real probability well above the 50% implied. The same match also hit BTTS (+0.75u). Key lesson: round-number odds like 2.00 often represent mispriced markets. When the model says 60% and the book says 50%, that 10-point gap is real edge.
Worst Pick — The Lesson
Colorado Rapids vs St. Louis City SC — Over 2.5
MLS · Sat May 10
Market: Over 2.5 @ 1.58 · Stake 1.5u
LOST
-1.50u
Lesson learned
The biggest single cost of the week was an MLS Over 2.5 at 1.58 odds with a 1.5u stake. The problem: 1.58 implies 63.3% probability — to justify real edge, the model needs to estimate above 68-70%. In MLS, tactical variance between conferences can compress scoring unexpectedly. Combined with the week's highest stake, the risk/reward profile wasn't optimal. Rule going forward: short-odds bets (below 1.65) require the model edge in percentage points to be proportionally higher before 1.5u stakes are applied.
Week-over-Week Delta
| Metric | Prior Week (Apr 28-May 3) | This Week (May 4-10) | Delta |
|---|
| Picks | 28 | 33 | +5 |
| W-L | 17W-11L | 19W-14L | — |
| Win Rate | 60.7% | 57.6% | -3.1pp |
| Profit | +3.69u | +1.19u | -2.50u |
| ROI | +12.5% | +3.5% | -9.0pp |
| Best Market | BTTS (+4.02u) | Over/Under 2.5 (+0.74u) | — |
| Best League | Super League GRE (97% ROI) | Scottish Prem (+2.26u) | — |
| Worst League | Over 2.5 drag (-2.67u) | Veikkausliiga (0W-3L, -3.00u) | — |
Perspective: ROI dropped from +12.5% to +3.5%, but that's five consecutive profitable weeks. The cumulative record now stands at +38.82u and 6.36% ROI across 549 picks. Veikkausliiga is consistently draining profitability — the model is raising the edge threshold for that league before flagging picks.
What We're Watching Next Week
With European leagues in their final rounds and the American calendar in full swing, three strategic focuses for the week of May 11-17:
1. Scottish Premiership — Capitalise on the run. Four wins from five this week, including the Old Firm and Falkirk-Hibs. The SPL enters its playoff and relegation battle phase — a zone of high motivation and elevated model accuracy historically. The next set of fixtures carries serious pressure on multiple clubs.
2. Veikkausliiga — Raise thresholds or pause. Three consecutive losses from Finland with 0% accuracy isn't pure variance: it signals the model needs more data from that league to calibrate properly. Next week, Over 2.5 in Veikkausliiga only activates with edge above 10% — a strict cap until calibration recovers.
3. MLS and Allsvenskan — Keep precision on short odds. Both leagues are generating picks at 1.56–1.74 odds, which demand high hit rates. The system is adjusting stakes: odds below 1.65 cap at under 1u unless the edge is clearly above threshold.
On the radar next week: La Liga final weekend (Barcelona and Madrid with opposing motivations), MLS conference rivalry round, Scottish Prem playoff race, J1 League and Allsvenskan at their mid-season mark.
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